Written about 9:00 AM ET Tuesday, before the opening bell.
Markets at ~8:45 AM ET
| Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,741.50 | +0.35% (08:43 ET) |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,587.25 | +0.51% (08:43 ET) |
| Dow futures | 52,694 | +0.27% (08:43 ET) |
| Russell 2000 futures | 2,809.00 | +0.41% (08:43 ET) |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.995% | +0.9 bp (08:38 ET) |
| 2-year Treasury yield | unavailable | live quote not in our feed; it closed Monday at 4.68% |
| 5-year Treasury yield | 4.840% | +1.6 bp (08:38 ET) |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 102.17 | +0.20% (08:43 ET) |
| WTI crude ($/bbl) | 101.19 | -0.56% (08:43 ET) |
| Brent crude, next contract ($/bbl) | 110.28 | -0.42% (08:42 ET) |
| Gold ($/oz) | 4,037.8 | -0.01% (08:43 ET) |
| Bitcoin | 80,279 | +0.34% (08:52 ET) |
| VIX | 17.78 | -3.32% (08:38 ET) |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 63,268 | +1.73% (02:45 ET) |
| KOSPI (close) | 5,638.34 | +3.09% (07:05 ET) |
| Hang Seng (close) | 23,041 | -0.23% (04:08 ET) |
| Shanghai Composite (close) | 3,648.30 | -1.14% (03:00 ET) |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,136.16 | +0.33% (08:38 ET) |
| DAX | 25,484 | +0.29% (08:38 ET) |
| FTSE 100 | 10,673 | -0.88% (08:38 ET) |
| CAC 40 | 7,876 | +0.36% (08:38 ET) |
What’s moving before the bell
A quieter follow-through after Monday’s rally. S&P futures are +0.3% and Nasdaq futures +0.5% as crude extends its slide and a heavy earnings morning comes in mostly better than feared. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates on Wednesday after last month’s increase, though markets still price at least two more hikes by mid-2027 with inflation running hot amid the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Beat-and-raise names lead. United Parcel Service (UPS) is up about 1.5% after beating estimates and lifting its 2026 revenue outlook to about $92.6 billion. Royal Caribbean is up about 4.5%, S&P Global about 4%, Johnson Controls about 4% and SoFi about 10% on strong quarters and higher guidance. Celestica is up about 15% and Cadence Design about 1.5% after raising their outlooks last night. JetBlue is up more than 11% on its margin outlook, and Corning is up about 2–3% on a beat.
Misses and AI money. Whirlpool is down about 6–7% after a surprise loss and a cut forecast, Sherwin-Williams about 4.7% lower on its outlook, and PayPal about 1–1.7% lower on a revenue miss despite a higher profit forecast. Coca-Cola is up slightly after raising its outlook for a third straight quarter, and Boeing is slightly higher on mixed results. Nvidia (NVDA) is +1.1% after saying it will invest $3 billion in Meta’s planned equity raise of up to $95 billion, and Broadcom is up about 2% on an upgrade.
Oil, rates and overseas. WTI is at $101.19 (-0.6%) and Brent’s next contract at $110.28 (-0.4%). The 10-year yield is 4.995% (+0.9 bp), the dollar index is +0.2%, gold is -0.0%, bitcoin is +0.3% and the VIX is 17.78. Asia was split, with the KOSPI +3.1% and the Nikkei +1.7% higher but the Hang Seng -0.2% and Shanghai -1.1% lower. Europe is mixed, with the DAX +0.3% and the CAC 40 +0.4% up and the FTSE 100 -0.9%.
Economic calendar and Fed (ET)
- 9:00 AM: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller and FHFA home prices for August.
- 10:00 AM: Conference Board consumer confidence for October (consensus about 80.5–81.0, prior 81.9).
- 10:00 AM: New home sales for September.
- Durable goods orders and building permits are also on today’s calendar; exact release times were unavailable to us this morning.
- Fed: no scheduled speakers; officials are in the blackout as the two-day FOMC meeting begins, with the decision Wednesday at 2:00 PM.
.ics
Earnings
Before the open: UPS, Coca-Cola, PayPal, Corning, Royal Caribbean, Boeing, Whirlpool, JetBlue, SoFi, S&P Global, Sherwin-Williams, Johnson Controls and Galaxy Digital (GLXY), whose results are covered below. Last night, Cadence, Celestica and Amkor reported; Amkor is up more than 3% despite missing estimates and trimming its capital-spending plan.
After the close: Visa, Seagate, Robinhood, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne, Mondelez, Waste Management, Baker Hughes, F5, PPG and Universal Health Services.
Watchlist setups
- ImmunityBio (IBRX) $7.90 (+1.2% vs $7.81 Monday close): a small bounce after Monday’s 5% drop; no company news we found.
- NextNav (NN) $11.40 (+1.1% vs $11.28 Monday close): holding Monday’s 12% surge on SpaceX‘s FCC filing, with Thursday’s FCC open meeting ahead.
- SpaceX (SPCX) $148.72 (+1.2% vs $146.90 Monday close): firmer in a risk-on tape as the lockup tranche keeps trading.
- Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) $43.38 (+2.0% vs $42.54 Monday close): extending gains with power and AI-infrastructure names.
- Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) $49.88 (+3.2% vs $48.33 Monday close): chips stay bid ahead of SK hynix‘s third-quarter results tomorrow morning Seoul time (Tuesday evening ET).
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY) $16.28 (+3.8% vs $15.68 Monday close): up after third-quarter net income of $323 million, adjusted EPS of $0.83, data-center profit roughly quadrupling from the second quarter, and a new $200 million buyback.
Scenarios and Wick's pick
- Bull (25%): beat-and-raise earnings and cheaper oil extend Monday’s rally; the S&P closes above 7,750.
- Base (55%): a small gain as traders hold back before tomorrow’s Fed and megacap earnings; the S&P closes 7,670–7,750.
- Bear (20%): a weak consumer-confidence read or hawkish Fed chatter knocks the bounce over; the S&P closes below 7,670.
Wick's pick: Base. Earnings are carrying the tape, but with the Fed, Alphabet and Microsoft all landing tomorrow, we expect a grind higher rather than a breakout.
What to watch
- FOMC rate decision on Oct 28 at 2:00 PM ET.FOMCFOMC
- Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings call on Oct 28 (4:30 PM ET), and Microsoft FY27 Q1 earnings the same afternoon.MSFT Q1GOOGL Q3
- Oct 29: FCC open meeting, then Amazon Q3 earnings after the close.FCC open meetingAMZN Q3
- Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation on Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET..ics
Add all 7 events to calendar (.ics) Times are ET. Each event has a 1-day reminder. Estimated dates are marked.
Predictions for Today’s Close
Graded against Monday’s (Oct 26) closes after today’s close.
| Prediction | Call | Confidence | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 close vs Oct 26 close 7,676.77 (implied open ~7,704) | higher (7,670–7,750) | low-medium (55%) | Futures up about 0.3% on solid earnings and softer oil; the Fed tomorrow caps the upside. |
| 10-year yield close vs 4.986% prior | higher | low (50%) | Slightly higher pre-market with hike pricing still in play; a coin-flip ahead of the Fed. |
| VIX close vs 18.39 prior | lower | low-medium (55%) | Down about 3% pre-market as futures edge up. |
| Best S&P sector ETF (SPDR XL_) | XLK | low (40%) | Chips and Nvidia lead pre-market; XLK is about +0.8%. |
| Worst S&P sector ETF (SPDR XL_) | XLE | low (35%) | Oil keeps slipping and XLE is about −0.5% pre-market. |
| IBRX close vs $7.81 | lower | low (50%) | No news and a weak trend; the pre-market bounce is thin. |
| NN close vs $11.28 | higher | low (50%) | Momentum from the SpaceX FCC filing is holding pre-market, though a giveback after a 12% day is possible. |
| SPCX close vs $146.90 | higher | low (55%) | Up about 1% pre-market in a risk-on tape. |
| URNM close vs $42.54 | higher | low (55%) | Up about 2% pre-market with AI-power names. |
| DRAM close vs $48.33 | higher | low-medium (55%) | Memory leads pre-market into SK hynix results. |
| GLXY close vs $15.68 | higher | low-medium (55%) | Strong quarter, growing data-center profit and a new buyback. |
Model estimates and opinions by Wick. Informational only, not financial advice. Pre-market quotes can be thin and stale; predictions are tracked and scored openly after the close.