Written Thursday, Oct 22, 2026, after the close (ET). Share counts are the maximum eligible under the IPO lockup terms; being eligible to sell doesn’t mean a holder will sell.
The short version
- The biggest unlock yet just hit. Up to 1.30 billion SpaceX (SPCX) shares held by employees and early investors became sellable Thursday. That’s 28% of the 180-day lockup pool and roughly 9.7% of shares outstanding, more than double the original IPO float.
- The stock didn’t absorb it the way it did in August. SPCX finished the day around $144.75, down about 9.1%, on roughly 194M shares. It gave back Wednesday’s 7.8% post-earnings pop as the tech selloff resumed.
- More supply is coming soon: another 328.4M shares on Monday, Oct 26, and about 797.6M on Dec 8. Elon Musk’s roughly 6.4B shares stay locked until June 12, 2027.
- Space stocks fell too, but mostly with tech. The peer selloff tracked a broad risk-off day rather than a SpaceX-specific spillover.
The IPO and the lockup structure
SpaceX priced the largest IPO in U.S. history at $135 per Class A share and began trading on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026. It sold 555.6M shares, plus 83.3M on the underwriters’ option to buy extra shares, for about 638.9M in total, raising about $86B. That left only about 4.7%–4.8% of roughly 13.1–13.6B shares trading. Class B shares carry 10 votes each, and Musk holds about 42% of the economics and over 80% of the votes.
Instead of one 180-day cliff, the banks spread the release over nearly a year:
- Up to 20% of the 180-day pool after the first earnings report: 911.5M shares, released Aug 6.
- A bonus 10% (455.8M shares) that would have unlocked only if SPCX closed at least 30% above the IPO price ($175.50) on 5 of the 10 sessions before first earnings. It didn’t trigger, so those shares rolled into the final December release.
- Five 7% steps at days 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135: about 319M–328.4M shares each. There was also a 59.1M-share catch-up for affiliates on Sep 10.
- Up to 28% on the second full trading day after Q3 results. Q3 came out Tuesday, Oct 20 after the close, which made Thursday, Oct 22 the release day: 1.30B shares.
- The remainder, about 797.6M shares, at day 180 (Dec 8). Musk and certain significant investors signed a separate 366-day lockup with no early release. Executive officers have longer lockups that generally don’t start expiring until after Q4 results.
Who holds the newly freed shares
Thursday’s release covers the 180-day group: rank-and-file employees and early venture and growth investors who bought in the private rounds, many of them at a small fraction of today’s price. By holder group, the cap table breaks down roughly like this:
- About 6.4B shares belong to Musk.
- About 4.16B are in the 180-day pool.
- About 1.76B are with extended-lockup holders.
- About 59M are held by affiliates.
Counting everything released so far, about 3.57B shares have come out of lockup since August. Add the IPO float and roughly 30% of the company is now eligible to trade, up from under 5% in June.
The price action: today vs. August
- Thursday, Oct 22: opened at $153.65, peaked at $154.22, fell to $143.21 and finished around $144.75, down about 9.1%. Volume was about 194M shares.
- Wednesday, Oct 21: +7.8% to $159.31 after Q3, after trading as high as $166.12. Revenue was $14.58B, up 161% (vs. $12.72B expected). Adjusted EPS was $0.45 vs. $0.13 expected, and net income was $4.4B. Starlink connectivity revenue rose 69% to $5.25B on 13.6M subscribers, and AI revenue was $7.56B. SpaceX guided Q1 2027 revenue to $33–37B, far above the ~$22B consensus.
- What took the gain back: Q4 capex guidance of $35–40B, up from $19.6B in Q3, against $36.1B of debt. That came on a day when the AI-spending selloff hit tech broadly and Brent pushed toward $112. Musk also said SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to study a merger, which adds headline risk in both directions.
- The August contrast: on the first big unlock (911.5M shares, Aug 6), SPCX rose 6.1% to $114.92 on about 252M shares. The day before, it had slid 14% after its first earnings report. Short interest was estimated at as much as 36% of the float, so short covering helped. It closed back above $135 by Aug 10.
Since the IPO, the path has been brutal in both directions. The stock closed at $161 on day one and hit about $202 within four sessions. It later traded above $225, then fell to about $105 into first earnings, before working back to the $140s. Nasdaq-100 inclusion on July 7 added index demand along the way.
What Wall Street and the crowd are saying
- The sell side is bullish and getting more so. About 33 of 43 brokers rate SPCX a buy or better. After Q3, JPMorgan raised its target to $500 from $240, and BofA went to $275 from $235. The main pushback is capital intensity: one analyst said the call “served to amplify the enormous calls on capital that loom over the next few years.”
- The crowd is split by platform. Around the August unlock, bullish posts came overwhelmingly from X and bearish ones from Reddit. On Reddit, the August lockup was called a “nothing burger,” but commenters warned that the unlocks still ahead keep supply and demand in play. Thursday’s drop gives the bears their first unlock-day win.
Historical precedent: how big IPO lockups usually trade
- The average effect is small but negative. Academic studies of thousands of U.S. IPOs find average abnormal returns of roughly −1% to −3% around lockup expiry, with volume up about 40%. Much of the drift tends to happen in the days before the date, as traders front-run the supply.
- The size of the release matters less than the setup. Meta Platforms (META), then Facebook, fell to a record low on its first unlock in August 2012. Then it rose sharply on its far larger November 2012 release, because the stock had already been de-risked.
- SpaceX’s staged design spreads that pattern over many dates. Each release is a smaller test, and the stock’s setup going into each date (positioning, short interest, the tape) has mattered more than the share count. August came after a 14% drop; October came after an 8% pop.
Impact on other space stocks
Space names sold off Thursday, but the pattern looks like high-beta tech de-risking, not unlock contagion. Moves by late morning ET:
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): about −6.5%, to $38.23.
- Viasat (VSAT): about −6.3%.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB): about −5.4%, to $50.74.
- Intuitive Machines (LUNR): about −5.0%, to $10.37.
- Planet Labs (PL): about −4.8%, to $13.05.
- Firefly Aerospace (FLY): about −2.4% early.
- Procure Space ETF (UFO): about −3%, against about −2% for the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).
Those are the moves you’d expect from volatile stocks on a 2% Nasdaq-100 down day. Peers also fell less than SPCX, and in August Rocket Lab actually rose about 1% on unlock day. We have no reliable read on Redwire (RDW), the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX) or the legacy aerospace primes, so we’re not counting them either way. Bottom line: there’s no meaningful SpaceX-specific spillover. The one lasting link is that every SPCX unlock gives holders a cheaper way to own “space” than the small caps, which can cap peer rallies when SPCX supply is heavy.
Scenarios
Wick's take
Wick's pick is the Base case (50%). The August unlock showed there’s real demand under this stock. Today showed that demand has a price when it lands on a risk-off day right after an 8% pop. The long-term case got stronger this week; the issue now is near-term supply, not fundamentals. Wick would let Monday’s release and the Fed pass before adding, and would treat a close back under $135 as the sign the Bear case is taking over. What would change the view: a quick reclaim of $160 on heavy volume would move Wick to the Bull case.
What to watch
- Mon Oct 26: the day-135 release of up to 328.4M shares becomes tradable. It comes off lockup Saturday, Oct 24.
.ics
- Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET: FOMC rate decision, a swing factor for high-multiple tech..ics
- Mon Nov 9, after the close: Rocket Lab (RKLB) Q3 results, the cleanest read on space demand beyond SpaceX..ics
- Tue Dec 8: the day-180 lock expires, releasing about 797.6M shares, including the bonus tranche that didn’t trigger in August..ics
Educational commentary, not investment advice. Share counts are maximum eligible amounts under the IPO lockup terms; prices are approximate.
Add all 4 events to calendar (.ics) Times are ET. Each event has a 1-day reminder. Estimated dates are marked.