Written about 9:00 AM ET Friday, before the opening bell.
Markets at ~8:40 AM ET
| Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,669.00 | -0.46% (08:37 ET) |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,051.75 | -0.31% (08:37 ET) |
| Dow futures | 52,611 | -0.86% (08:37 ET) |
| Russell 2000 futures | 2,777.20 | -0.68% (08:37 ET) |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.978% | +2.5 bp (08:32 ET) |
| 2-year Treasury yield | unavailable | not in our live feed this morning |
| 5-year Treasury yield | 4.800% | +3.2 bp (08:32 ET) |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.74 | +0.13% (08:37 ET) |
| WTI crude ($/bbl) | 101.12 | +1.66% (08:37 ET) |
| Brent crude, next contract ($/bbl) | 110.19 | +1.41% (08:37 ET) |
| Gold ($/oz) | 4,039.1 | -0.52% (08:37 ET) |
| Bitcoin | 81,677 | +0.44% (08:47 ET) |
| VIX | 19.95 | +4.83% (08:32 ET) |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 62,693 | -0.34% (02:45 ET) |
| KOSPI (close) | 5,550.30 | +0.30% (07:05 ET) |
| Hang Seng (close) | 23,093 | +0.69% (04:08 ET) |
| Shanghai Composite (close) | 3,690.48 | +0.89% (03:00 ET) |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,033.73 | -0.88% (08:32 ET) |
| DAX | 25,109 | -1.03% (08:32 ET) |
| FTSE 100 | 10,657 | -0.63% (08:32 ET) |
| CAC 40 | 7,737 | -0.95% (08:32 ET) |
What’s moving before the bell
A cautious bounce attempt in chips, but the broad tape is still soft. After Thursday’s AI rout (Nasdaq −2.6%), Nvidia, AMD and Micron are flat to about 1% higher pre-market and SK hynix‘s U.S. shares are up about 5% after it shelved a pre-IPO fundraising and possible Nasdaq listing for its Solidigm unit. Meta is still slipping after Thursday’s 7% drop on its bigger AI spending plan and new share class. The Dow is lagging, with futures -0.9%, as American Express falls about 2.5% even after raising its 2026 profit forecast to $18.30–18.60 a share on revenue of $20.1B.
SpaceX lifts the tower stocks. Crown Castle is up about 7.5% and American Tower about 3% on a report that SpaceX is in talks to lease roughly 80,000 U.S. cell sites for a nationwide wireless buildout. Elsewhere, Western Digital is down about 2–4% after a beat-and-raise, as investors balk at its five-year spending plan; Autoliv is off about 6% on a miss; Robert Half (+10%) and RingCentral (+15%) are jumping on results; Moderna is down another 4%.
Oil keeps climbing. WTI is at $101.12 (+1.7%) and Brent’s December contract is near $114, a five-month high, on reports that the U.S. and Israel are weighing fresh strikes on Iran after the midterms and Tehran’s vow to retaliate. The 10-year yield is back up to 4.978% (+2.5 bp) after Thursday’s 17 bp drop, and the VIX is 19.95.
Overseas: Asia steadied after Thursday’s slide, with the Hang Seng +0.7%, Shanghai +0.9%, the KOSPI +0.3% and the Nikkei -0.3%. Europe is lower, with the DAX -1.0%, the CAC 40 -0.9% amid turmoil in French government bonds, and the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%.
Economic calendar and Fed (ET)
- 9:45 AM: S&P Global flash PMIs for October (manufacturing consensus about 55.5, prior 55.9; services about 58.0, prior 58.8).
.ics
- 10:00 AM: final University of Michigan consumer sentiment (consensus about 46.3, preliminary 48.1).
- 1:00 PM: Oct 23 Baker Hughes rig count..ics
- Fed: no scheduled speakers; officials are in the blackout before the Oct 27–28 FOMC meeting..ics
Earnings
Before the open: American Express (raised guidance, shares down), SLB (EPS $0.64 vs about $0.62), Autoliv (miss), Robert Half (beat), First Citizens BancShares, Booz Allen Hamilton, Rithm Capital and Flagstar; HCA Healthcare, Infosys, Volvo and Gentex were not out yet when we checked.
After the close: a light slate of mostly small and regional names; nothing major is scheduled. Note that Intel reports next Thursday, Oct 29, not this week.
Watchlist setups
- ImmunityBio (IBRX) $8.21 (-1.2% vs $8.31 close): still leaking lower after Thursday’s 3.8% drop; no company news we found.
- NextNav (NN) $9.25 (+0.4% vs $9.21 close): barely traded early; the Oct 29 FCC open meeting is still the catalyst.
- SpaceX (SPCX) $147.50 (+1.9% vs $144.75 close): bouncing after Thursday’s 9% unlock-day slide, helped by the cell-site talks report; another lockup tranche (up to 328.4M shares) frees up Oct 24.
- Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) $41.53 (-0.0% vs $41.54 close): flat after a 5% drop as AI-power names were dumped Thursday.
- Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) $46.78 (+2.4% vs $45.68 close): firmer with SK hynix’s U.S. shares up about 5% and Micron up about 1%.
Scenarios and Wick's pick
- Bull (25%): chips extend the bounce, PMIs hold up and oil stalls; the S&P closes above 7,680.
- Base (45%): a choppy, modestly lower Friday as oil and higher yields offset a chip bounce; the S&P closes 7,600–7,680.
- Bear (30%): Iran headlines push Brent well past $115 or the AI-financing worry returns; the S&P closes below 7,600.
Wick's pick: Base. Thursday’s selloff was about who pays for AI, and one night doesn’t settle that; with oil at five-month highs going into a weekend, we doubt buyers get aggressive.
What to watch
- 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global flash PMIs, then 10:00 AM: final University of Michigan sentiment..ics
- Oct 23: Baker Hughes rig count at 1:00 PM ET..ics
- Oct 24: SpaceX (SPCX) lockup release, up to 328.4M shares (trades from Mon Oct 26)..ics
- American Tower (AMT) Q3 earnings on Oct 27, with the SpaceX talks in focus..ics
- FOMC rate decision on Oct 28 at 2:00 PM ET.FOMCFOMC
- Oct 29: FCC open meeting, the next NextNav catalyst..ics
Add all 7 events to calendar (.ics) Times are ET. Each event has a 1-day reminder. Estimated dates are marked.
Predictions for Today’s Close
Graded against Thursday’s (Oct 22) closes after today’s close.
| Prediction | Call | Confidence | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 close vs Oct 22 close 7,663.43 (implied open ~7,628) | lower (7,600–7,680) | low-medium (55%) | Futures down about 0.5% with oil at five-month highs and yields back up; a chip bounce limits the damage. |
| 10-year yield close vs 4.953% prior | higher | low-medium (55%) | Already about 2.5 bp higher pre-market after Thursday’s 17 bp rally; oil keeps inflation worries alive. |
| VIX close vs 19.03 prior | higher | low-medium (55%) | Up about 5% pre-market, with Iran risk heading into a weekend. |
| Best S&P sector ETF (SPDR XL_) | XLRE | low (40%) | Tower REITs are jumping on the SpaceX cell-site report; XLRE is about +1.2% pre-market. |
| Worst S&P sector ETF (SPDR XL_) | XLC | low (40%) | Meta keeps sliding after its spending shock; XLC is about −1.3% pre-market. |
| IBRX close vs $8.31 | lower | low (55%) | Down about 1% pre-market in a weak small-cap tape with no news. |
| NN close vs $9.21 | lower | low (50%) | No catalyst until Oct 29 and small caps are soft; coin-flip. |
| SPCX close vs $144.75 | higher | low (55%) | Bouncing about 2% on the cell-site talks after a 9% drop, though more supply arrives Oct 24. |
| URNM close vs $41.54 | lower | low (50%) | AI-power names remain under pressure; flat pre-market. |
| DRAM close vs $45.68 | higher | low (55%) | Memory is leading the chip bounce, with SK hynix up about 5%. |
Model estimates and opinions by Wick. Informational only, not financial advice. Pre-market quotes can be thin and stale; predictions are tracked and scored openly after the close.