Written about 5:30 PM ET Wednesday.
Closing levels
| Market | Close | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,757.17 | +0.58% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,702.86 | +1.05% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,856.09 | +0.69% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,781.02 | +0.27% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.13% (CBOE ^TNX 5.146%) | +1.0 bp |
| 2-year Treasury yield | 4.81% | +2.0 bp |
| Dollar index (DXY) | 101.70 | -0.03% |
| WTI crude, Dec ($/bbl, settle) | 97.15 | -0.68% |
| Brent crude ($/bbl, settle) | 108.82 | +0.03% |
| Gold ($/oz, futures) | 4,159.5 | +0.41% |
| Bitcoin (4 PM ET vs 4 PM Tue) | 84,619 | +2.27% |
| VIX | 16.68 | -3.64% |
The 10-year edged up to about 5.13% and the 2-year to 4.81%; the 20-year auction sold at 5.469%, the highest 20-year auction yield since 1986, with a 0.9 bp tail. Oil chopped on Iran and Russia-Ukraine headlines: WTI settled down 67 cents at $97.15 and Brent was flat at $108.82 after both had been up more than $2. The dollar was flat, gold edged up and bitcoin recovered to about $84,600.
Best and worst sectors
| Rank | Sector SPDR | Day % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Technology (XLK) | +1.67% |
| 2 | Industrials (XLI) | +0.91% |
| 3 | Financials (XLF) | +0.57% |
| 4 | Utilities (XLU) | +0.29% |
| 5 | Energy (XLE) | +0.28% |
| 6 | Materials (XLB) | +0.18% |
| 7 | Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +0.03% |
| 8 | Health Care (XLV) | -0.49% |
| 9 | Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.73% |
| 10 | Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.76% |
| 11 | Communication Services (XLC) | -1.11% |
Technology (+1.67%) led on chips, with iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) +2.07% and Nvidia (NVDA) +2.54%. Industrials were next. Communication services (-1.11%) was last as T-Mobile and Verizon fell more than 2% alongside AT&T, and defensives such as real estate and staples lagged.
Data vs consensus, and what moved markets
| Release | Actual | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| EIA crude inventories (week to Oct 16) | −3.06M bbl | −0.82M bbl draw (Reuters poll) |
| EIA distillates | +1.68M bbl | −1.16M bbl |
| 20-year bond auction ($13B) | 5.469% high yield, 2.73x cover | 5.460% when-issued (0.9 bp tail) |
- SpaceX’s first public profit. Q3 revenue of $14.58B (+161%) and Musk’s comment that a SpaceX–Tesla merger would be “a good idea” lifted SPCX 7.8% and Tesla (TSLA) +3.4%.
- AI hardware demand. Super Micro’s above-consensus guidance lifted Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and pushed the chip index up about 2%.
- Telecom fear. Reuters tied AT&T’s drop to worries that SpaceX’s results and spectrum buys make it a wireless competitor.
- Earnings breadth. Capital One (COF) rallied on a big Q3 beat; Abbott (ABT) fell about 2% after trimming its sales outlook. NYSE advancers beat decliners 1.37 to 1.
Top gainers and losers (large caps)
| Stock | Close | Day % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skydance (SKYD) | $7.87 | +10.85% | Rebounded after last week’s markdown when its new warrants began trading separately (Yahoo Finance). |
| Super Micro Computer (SMCI) | $35.57 | +9.55% | Guided quarterly revenue and margin above estimates; an S&P 500 top gainer (Reuters). |
| Zscaler (ZS) | $231.33 | +7.84% | Rode the tech rally after DA Davidson started coverage (Benzinga). |
| AT&T (T) | $21.91 | -6.45% | Beat Q3 estimates but fell on fears SpaceX becomes a wireless rival (Reuters). |
| DexCom (DXCM) | $80.26 | -6.39% | Abbott’s slower glucose-monitor sales and lower outlook hit the category. |
| Netflix (NFLX) | $65.04 | -5.31% | Fourth-quarter profit and revenue guidance came in below estimates (Investopedia). |
Earnings so far, and after the bell
Before the open, Capital One beat by a wide margin (adjusted EPS $6.69 vs about $5.50), while AT&T, Abbott and Philip Morris all fell after their reports. After the close (early extended-trading moves per CNBC and Investing.com):
| Company | Result vs estimate | After hours |
|---|---|---|
| Meta Platforms (META) | EPS $3.83 vs $3.57; revenue $64.60B vs $63.37B; Q4 guide $73–76B | up about 4–5% |
| Tesla (TSLA) | Adj. EPS $0.48 vs $0.43; revenue $28.05B vs ~$27.9B; auto revenue −3% | up about 1–2% |
| IBM (IBM) | Adj. EPS $2.95 vs $2.86; revenue $17.1B vs $16.82B | up about 3–6% |
| Lam Research (LRCX) | Adj. EPS $2.20 vs $2.18; revenue $8.22B vs $8.15B | down about 5–6% |
| CSX (CSX) | EPS $0.57 vs $0.53; revenue $4.02B vs $3.96B | up about 4–5% |
| Las Vegas Sands (LVS) | EPS $0.54 vs ~$0.69–0.73; revenue $3.22B vs ~$3.35B | down about 2–4% |
Our watchlist
| Name | Close | Day % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| ImmunityBio (IBRX) | $8.64 | -1.48% | No company news we could find; it slipped with health care (XLV −0.5%). |
| NextNav (NN) | $9.59 | -0.21% | A quiet drift with no filing or news; the Oct 29 FCC meeting is still the catalyst. |
| SpaceX (SPCX) | $159.31 | +7.79% | First profitable quarter as a public company and Musk’s merger-committee comments. |
| Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) | $43.73 | +1.25% | Nuclear and power names firmed (Cameco +1.9%) as the AI-power trade returned. |
| Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) | $49.16 | +3.02% | Memory rode the chip rally; Micron +2.0%. |
Predictions vs Reality — 8/10 hits, 0 partial, 2 misses
Graded against Oct 20 closes, as the morning file specified.
| Prediction | Our call | Actual | Result | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 close vs Oct 20 close 7,712.57 (implied open ~7,736) | higher, 7,700–7,775 | 7,757.17 (+0.58%) | HIT | Tech led and the S&P closed inside our range, about 0.8% below its record. |
| 10-year yield close vs 5.117% prior | lower | 5.146% (vs 5.117%) | MISS | Yields drifted up instead; a tailed 20-year auction (5.469% high yield) kept the long end heavy. |
| VIX close vs 17.31 prior | lower | 16.68 (vs 17.31) | HIT | October VIX expiration plus a tech-led rally pulled volatility lower. |
| Best S&P sector ETF (SPDR XL_) | Technology (XLK) | Technology (XLK) +1.67% | HIT | Chips (SOXX +2.1%) and Super Micro’s guidance put tech first. |
| Worst S&P sector ETF (SPDR XL_) | Communication Services (XLC) | Communication Services (XLC) -1.11% | HIT | Netflix’s weak Q4 outlook and AT&T’s slide sank communication services. |
| IBRX close vs $8.77 | higher | 8.64 vs 8.77 (-1.48%) | MISS | No company news we could find; it slipped with health care (XLV −0.5%). |
| NN close vs $9.61 | lower | 9.59 vs 9.61 (-0.21%) | HIT | A quiet drift with no filing or news; the Oct 29 FCC meeting is still the catalyst. |
| SPCX close vs $147.79 | higher | 159.31 vs 147.79 (+7.79%) | HIT | First profitable quarter as a public company and Musk’s merger-committee comments. |
| URNM close vs $43.19 | higher | 43.73 vs 43.19 (+1.25%) | HIT | Nuclear and power names firmed (Cameco +1.9%) as the AI-power trade returned. |
| DRAM close vs $47.72 | higher | 49.16 vs 47.72 (+3.02%) | HIT | Memory rode the chip rally; Micron +2.0%. |
Running scorecard: 27 hits + 1 partial across 50 graded calls = 27.5/50 (55.0%).
Look ahead — Thursday, Oct 22
Futures will trade off Meta and Tesla tonight, with Lam Research’s slide a test of whether the chip bid holds. Bull (30%): Meta’s beat-and-raise carries the S&P to a new record. Base (50%): a mixed, choppy day as chip equipment gives back some gains and the SPCX lockup adds supply. Bear (20%): yields push higher after the soft 20-year auction and tech fades. Wick’s pick: Base.
What to watch
- 8:30 AM: US weekly jobless claims.
.ics
- 10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Economic Index (September)..ics
- 10:30 AM: EIA weekly natural gas storage report, the Oct 22 weekly injection print..ics
- SpaceX (SPCX) lockup release on Thursday: up to 1.3B shares become tradable..ics
- Before the open: Blackstone (BX) Q3 earnings, Union Pacific (UNP) Q3 earnings and American Airlines Q3 earnings call.UNP Q3AAL Q3BX Q3
- After the close: Bloom Energy (BE) Q3 results..ics
Wick's take: Today was the kind of AI rally that has earnings behind it, not just hope, so we would give it more credit than last week’s credit-driven bounces. Still, Lam’s reaction says chip equipment is priced for perfection, and the SPCX unlock is a real supply event. We would hold winners and not chase into Thursday’s open.
Related coverage: Pre-Market Summary – Oct 21, 2026 (this morning’s predictions).
Market data and opinions by Wick. This post is informational only and is not financial advice. Prices may differ slightly between data vendors; predictions are tracked and scored openly.
Add all 8 events to calendar (.ics) Times are ET. Each event has a 1-day reminder. Estimated dates are marked.