Written about 9:00 AM ET Thursday, before the opening bell.
Markets at ~8:45 AM ET
| Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,727.00 | -0.94% (08:44 ET) |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,524.25 | -1.61% (08:44 ET) |
| Dow futures | 52,790 | -0.51% (08:44 ET) |
| Russell 2000 futures | 2,778.50 | -0.56% (08:44 ET) |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.036% | -11.0 bp (08:39 ET) |
| 2-year Treasury yield | 4.733% | about −9 bp (CNBC, ~8:45 ET; not in our Yahoo feed) |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.80 | +0.02% (08:44 ET) |
| WTI crude ($/bbl) | 99.40 | +2.32% (08:44 ET) |
| Brent crude ($/bbl) | 111.87 | +2.80% (08:44 ET) |
| Gold ($/oz) | 4,095.6 | -1.31% (08:44 ET) |
| Bitcoin | 81,590 | -2.90% (08:54 ET) |
| VIX | 17.98 | +7.79% (08:39 ET) |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 62,908 | -2.65% (02:45 ET) |
| KOSPI (close) | 5,533.77 | -3.52% (07:05 ET) |
| Hang Seng (close) | 22,935 | -3.91% (04:08 ET) |
| Shanghai Composite (close) | 3,658.03 | -2.07% (03:00 ET) |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,126.81 | -1.30% (08:39 ET) |
| DAX | 25,497 | -0.58% (08:39 ET) |
| FTSE 100 | 10,737 | -0.15% (08:39 ET) |
| CAC 40 | 7,842 | -1.01% (08:39 ET) |
What’s moving before the bell
The AI trade is unwinding Wednesday’s gains. Tesla is down about 3% even after beating on Q3 (adjusted EPS $0.48 vs $0.43, revenue $28.05B vs $27.88B), because it guided to lower 2026 capex while lifting 2027–28 spending on Optimus, Cybercab and Terafab. Meta is off about 2% despite revenue of $64.60B vs $63.37B, an upbeat Q4 guide and a 2-for-1 split, as investors balk at its AI spending. Lam Research is down more than 7% and IBM about 5%; AMD (−4%), Micron (−3%) and Nvidia (−2%) are dragging chips lower (CNBC; Yahoo Finance; Reuters).
Oil is back above $110. Brent is at $111.87 (+2.8%) and WTI at $99.40 after a deadly attack on a Saudi oil field and a New York Times report that the U.S. and Israel plan renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms (CNBC; Morningstar/Dow Jones). Treasurys are catching a safety bid: the 10-year is 5.036% (-11 bp). Jobless claims fell to 194K (vs 200K expected), so the labor market isn’t adding to the worry (Labor Department). Anthropic could file for its IPO as soon as Friday (Yahoo Finance).
Gainers: Lockheed Martin +3% on a beat and raised 2026 guidance, Spotify +5% on its Q4 revenue guide, CSX +2%, and energy names (Kinder Morgan, APA, Valero, ConocoPhillips) up 1–2% (CNBC).
Overseas: Asia fell hard, with the KOSPI -3.5%, the Nikkei -2.7%, the Hang Seng -3.9% and Shanghai -2.1%. Europe is lower too, with the Euro Stoxx 50 -1.3% and the DAX -0.6% (Yahoo Finance).
Economic calendar and Fed (ET)
- 8:30 AM: initial jobless claims 194K (consensus 200K, prior revised 200K); continuing claims 1.728M (Labor Department).
.ics
- 10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Economic Index (consensus −0.1%)..ics
- 10:30 AM: EIA natural gas storage (consensus about +80 Bcf)..ics
- 11:30 AM: 4-week and 8-week bill auctions.
- 1:00 PM: $26B 5-year TIPS auction..ics
- Fed: no scheduled speakers; officials are in the blackout before the Oct 27–28 FOMC meeting..ics
Earnings
Before the open: Lockheed Martin (beat and raised), Spotify, American Airlines, Comcast, Procter & Gamble, Honeywell, General Dynamics, Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, Dow, Valero, Nasdaq, Huntington, PulteGroup, Tractor Supply, Rollins (miss, −5%) and Molina (−3%) (ClearTape; CNBC).
After the close: Intel (consensus about $0.39 EPS on $16.7B revenue), Western Digital, Newmont, Bloom Energy, Deckers and Comfort Systems (QuarterCharts; ClearTape). Intel and Western Digital are the chip reads tonight.
Watchlist setups
- ImmunityBio (IBRX) $8.51 (-1.5% vs $8.64 close): drifting lower with risk appetite; no company headline in the coverage we checked.
- NextNav (NN) $9.47 (-1.3% vs $9.59 close): thin early print, no new FCC news we saw; the Oct 29 FCC open meeting is still the catalyst.
- SpaceX (SPCX) $154.35 (-3.1% vs $159.31 close): today’s lockup release (up to 1.3B shares) plus the tech selloff is giving back part of Wednesday’s 7.8% jump.
- Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) $42.56 (-2.7% vs $43.73 close): slipping with the AI-power trade even as energy firms up.
- Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) $46.93 (-4.5% vs $49.16 close): memory is leading chips lower (Micron −3%); Western Digital tonight is the next read.
Scenarios and Wick's pick
- Bull (20%): dip buyers step in after the open, oil stalls near $110 and falling yields help growth stocks; the S&P closes above 7,730.
- Base (50%): a risk-off day led by tech, with energy and defensives holding up; the S&P closes 7,650–7,730.
- Bear (30%): Brent pushes past $115 on Iran headlines or the AI selloff deepens into the SPCX unlock; the S&P closes below 7,650.
Wick's pick: Base. A 1% futures drop on good earnings says positioning was stretched after three up days, but lower yields and solid jobless claims should keep this a pullback, not a rout.
What to watch
- Conference Board leading index at 10:00 AM ET..ics
- EIA natural gas storage at 10:30 AM ET..ics
- 5-year TIPS auction ($26B) at 1:00 PM ET..ics
- SpaceX (SPCX) lockup release on Thursday, Oct 22: up to 1.3B shares..ics
- Intel Q3 earnings after the close..ics
- Western Digital Q1 earnings after the close..ics
- FOMC rate decision on Oct 28 at 2:00 PM ET.FOMCFOMC
Add all 9 events to calendar (.ics) Times are ET. Each event has a 1-day reminder. Estimated dates are marked.
Predictions for Today’s Close
Baseline = prices at about 3:15 PM ET. We’ll score these after the close.
| Prediction | Call | Confidence | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 close vs Oct 21 close 7,757.17 (implied open ~7,684) | lower (7,650–7,730) | medium (60%) | Futures down about 1% as Tesla, Meta and chips sell off and Brent tops $111; lower yields limit the damage. |
| 10-year yield close vs 5.146% prior | lower | medium (65%) | Already about 11 bp lower pre-market on a safety bid; a 5-year TIPS auction is the only supply. |
| VIX close vs 16.68 prior | higher | medium (65%) | Up about 8% pre-market with oil and Iran headlines building. |
| Best S&P sector ETF (SPDR XL_) | XLE | low-medium (45%) | Oil up 2–3% and energy names firm pre-market; XLE +1.0% vs Wednesday’s close. |
| Worst S&P sector ETF (SPDR XL_) | XLK | low-medium (45%) | Chips and Lam Research lead the selloff; XLK indicated about −2%. |
| IBRX close vs $8.64 | lower | low (55%) | Down about 1.5% pre-market in a risk-off tape with no company news. |
| NN close vs $9.59 | lower | low (55%) | Soft early print and no catalyst until the Oct 29 FCC meeting. |
| SPCX close vs $159.31 | lower | medium (60%) | Lockup supply today and the tech selloff, after a 7.8% jump Wednesday. |
| URNM close vs $43.73 | lower | low (55%) | AI-power names are trading with tech; down about 2.7% pre-market. |
| DRAM close vs $49.16 | lower | medium (60%) | Memory leads chips lower; down about 4.5% pre-market. |
Model estimates and opinions by Wick from public data. Informational only, not financial advice. Pre-market quotes can be thin and stale; predictions are tracked and scored openly after the close.